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Strategy & Transformation

Higher for Longer:  Refinancing, Maturity Management, and the New Mathematics of Caribbean Debt

In Article 5 of this series, I argued that Caribbean firms which pre-position their balance sheets for the next risk-off episode will gain market share from those that do not. This week, the series turns to the structural condition that makes that pre-positioning so consequential — the most important shift in the cost of capital...

When Global Risk Turns: Stress-Testing the Caribbean Balance Sheet

In Article 4 of this series, I argued that the critical-minerals window is the most consequential capital-allocation opportunity opening for our region. This week, the series turns to the dynamic that determines whether Caribbean firms can hold and compound the value they capture from such opportunities — or whether they lose it back, painfully and...

Critical Minerals, Critical Choices: What Caribbean Boards Must Decide Now

In Article 3 of this series, I argued that the Caribbean firms that will compound earnings over the next decade are the ones rebuilding their workforce around AI fluency. This week, the series turns from the internal to the external — from talent and productivity to the most important structural opportunity now opening in front...

The AI Skill Premium : Reading the Caribbean Job Market the Way the IDB Reads It

In Article 2 of this series, I argued that the Caribbean’s growth model — built for sixty years on more workers rather than better-deployed workers — has expired. With working-age population growth slowing across CARICOM, productivity is now the only remaining growth lever. This week, the question becomes: which workers, with which skills, will lift...

The Productivity Imperative:  Why Caribbean Firms Cannot Grow Through Headcount Anymore

Last week, in the opening article of this series, I argued that the Caribbean has built genuine resilience but is operating with thinning buffers. Several readers wrote to me afterwards with a related question: where, exactly, will Caribbean growth come from in the next decade if the macro tailwinds keep fading? The answer is in...

Resilience Is Not Immunity: A Caribbean Boardroom Playbook for 2026

Earlier this year, the Inter-American Development Bank published its 2026 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report under the title Resilience and Growth Prospects in a Shifting Global Economy. It is one of the most important documents Caribbean entrepreneurs will read this year. The headline finding is genuinely good news: the region has entered 2026 with...

Covenants Were Not Designed for Hurricanes: How to Stress-Test Loan Covenants Before They Stress-Test the Enterprise — and the Heat-Map That Surfaces the Dangerous Ones

  Valley Green Agriproducts — the name is composite, the events are real — is a Caribbean integrated agribusiness group I have spent considerable time advising. The group operates approximately twelve thousand acres of fresh produce and tree-crop cultivation across two territories, runs three primary processing facilities, employs roughly six hundred and twenty staff at...

The Single-Thread Borrower: Capital Structure Risk in Caribbean Enterprises

  There is a Caribbean distribution business that I will call Meridian — a composite drawn from the actual files of multiple advisory engagements over the last decade, with all identifying details changed but every operational fact preserved. Meridian was started in 1989 by a husband-and-wife team. By 2024, it employed 187 people across two...

After Melissa: Why Capital Structure is Now a Caribbean Resilience Question

On the morning of 28 October 2025, Hurricane Melissa made landfall over Jamaica with sustained winds of 185 miles per hour. Its central pressure was the lowest ever recorded for an Atlantic hurricane at the moment of landfall. It was the most powerful storm ever to strike the island. Roofs were torn off, ground floors...

Boardroom Readiness for Twin Peaks: Twelve Months to Build What the New Regime Will Require

The shape of the work The boardroom readiness work for Twin Peaks divides into five categories. Each category contains several sub-streams. The categories are governance, supervisory engagement, control functions, management information, and people. They are interlocking rather than sequential. A board that prioritises governance and defers supervisory engagement will discover during the first post-cutover supervisory...

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