Cash First, Always: 13-Week Liquidity & Working-Capital Triage After a Hurricane

A Dawgen RISE-360™ playbook for Jamaica and the Caribbean

Cash is the oxygen of post-disaster recovery. The difference between a controlled restoration and a downward spiral is decided by your first 13 weeks of liquidity management: how quickly you collect, how deliberately you pay, and how transparently you communicate with lenders, suppliers, and staff. This article delivers a copy-ready 13-week cash triage method, a tiered spend regime, lender-pack templates, and governance cadences aligned to Dawgen RISE-360™. Use this to protect payroll, restore revenue engines, and buy time for claims and relief funds to land.

 

1) Why “Cash First” in RISE-360™

• Insurance pays later; payroll is due now. Even with clean dossiers, advances often take days to weeks.

• Suppliers pick survivors. The firms that communicate and pay predictably (even partially) get priority inventory and repairs.

• Control beats cuts. A disciplined model lets you sequence payments instead of blanket freezes that damage recovery.

Target outcomes (by Day 7): live 13-week model, activated spend tiers, lender/supplier signals sent, and a runway view under multiple scenarios.

2) The Dawgen 13-Week Cash Triage Method (Overview)

1. Stand-up (Days 1–2): Build the skeleton; import opening cash, undrawn lines, and minimum cash threshold.

2. Map inflows (Days 1–5): Collections by aging bucket; insurance advances; relief; “other.”

3. Tier outflows (Days 1–5): Tier 0/1/2 with owners; lock Tier 0 immediately.

4. Pull levers (Week 1): Overdraft/lines, supplier finance, payment holidays, factoring.

5. Govern (Weeks 1–13): Daily review first 10 days; weekly pack to exec/board; lender/supplier cadence.

3) Building the 13-Week Model (Step-by-Step)

3.1 Inputs

• Opening Cash (incl. restricted cash disclosure).

• Undrawn Facilities (overdrafts, revolvers, stand-by lines).

• Minimum Cash Threshold (floor for operations and covenants).

• A/R Aging (current, 1–30, 31–60, 61–90, 90+ if relevant).

• A/P by vendor (critical vs. non-critical, with terms).

• Inventory & Repair Needs (quotes, SLAs).

• Payroll Calendar (dates, gross/net, statutory deductions schedule).

• Claims Milestones (inspection dates, advance timing).

• Relief Windows (filing deadlines; expected disbursements).

3.2 Inflows (Forecast Logic)

• Collections: apply conservative realization % per bucket (e.g., 85% current, 60% 1–30d, etc.).

• Insurance: base case = advance in Weeks 2–4; upside/downside variants.

• Relief: schedule grants/waivers when official notices confirm.

• Other: deposits, asset sales, VAT/GCT refunds.

3.3 Outflows (Tiering)

• Tier 0 (Non-negotiable): Payroll, life-safety, security, critical utilities, data connectivity.

• Tier 1 (MVO-essential): Temporary power/comms, repairs, priority logistics, critical SKUs.

• Tier 2 (Deferable): Non-critical opex, discretionary capex.

Rule: No Tier 2 without Gold approval (Incident Director). Place Tier 1 on weekly re-validation.

3.4 Net Cash & Runway

• Weekly Net Cash = Inflows – Outflows (all tiers enacted).

• Ending Cash = Prior Ending + Net + Lever Draws.

• Runway (weeks) = number of future weeks before Ending Cash breaches the Minimum Cash Threshold (counting from current week).

4) Collections Acceleration (Weeks 1–4)

• Segment by value and likelihood. Pair top accounts with senior callers.

• Offer options that preserve margin: split payments, card-on-file, early-pay discounts only where ROI positive.

• Operational proof. Share your MVO status and service plan—buyers pay suppliers who can deliver.

• Reduce friction: WhatsApp payment links, e-invoicing, QR codes at pop-ups.

• Escalate exceptions (public sector, large corporates) with relationship owners.

KPI: Collections vs. plan by bucket; DSO trend; % of top-20 debtors contacted weekly.

5) Payables Control Without Burning Bridges

• Communicate first, not last. Send your plan (what you can pay, when, and why).

• Sequence by criticality & switching cost. Repair vendors, fuel, logistics, and comms top the list.

• Offer predictability. Even 25–50% part-payments on schedule beat silence.

• Consolidate POs by vendor to reduce admin; tie payments to deliverables/SLAs.

• Document deferrals (who/what/when/why) in your audit trail—insurers and lenders will ask.

6) Liquidity Levers (What to Pull, When)

• Overdraft/Lines: short-term bridge; draw in small, scheduled tranches.

• Supplier Finance: extend payables on critical inputs; watch fees.

• Payment Holidays: bank moratoria on term loans; confirm in writing.

• Receivables Finance/Factoring: selective, on premium payers.

• Asset Sales: non-core; ensure title and delivery certainty.

• Equity Injection: last resort or growth-case funding for Elevation CAPEX.

Governance: pre-agree lever thresholds (e.g., draw OD when projected cash < floor + 1 week).

7) Lender Communications Pack (Copy-Ready)

Subject: Post-Hurricane Liquidity Plan — [Company] — [Date]
Attachments: 13-Week Cash Model (xlsx), SITREP #1, Claims Milestones, Repair SLAs.

Core Points (1 page):

• Impact summary and MVO status.

• Opening cash, undrawn lines, minimum cash threshold.

• Weekly net cash profile; runway base vs. downside.

• Covenants status and early-warning triggers.

• Specific asks: OD/line increases, waivers, holidays—with dates and documentation.

8) Governance & Cadence

• Daily (Days 1–10): cash huddle (15 min): collections, critical payments, lever status.

• Weekly (Weeks 1–8): KPI pack to exec/board and lenders: runway, covenant headroom, claim/relief progress, supplier OTIF.

• Monthly: update RISE-360™ Scorecard; lock CAPEX/Elevation decisions.

Roles: Finance Lead (owner), Collections Captain, Payables Captain, Lever Liaison (banks), Evidence Officer (claims linkage).

9) KPIs & Early-Warning Signals

• Runway (weeks) by scenario (base/downside).

• % Tier 0 met on time (target 100%).

• % Tier 1 funded vs. plan (target ≥90%).

• Collections vs. plan (by aging bucket).

• Claim advances received vs. scheduled.

• Supplier OTIF (on-time in-full for critical vendors).

• Covenant headroom (DSCR, leverage) and breach probability flags.

10) Scenarios & Sensitivities (How to Use Them)

• Base: conservative collections; 1 insurance advance (Week 3).

• Downside: 25–40% lower collections; advance slips 2 weeks; extra repair costs.

• Upside: stronger collections; earlier advance; relief grant lands in Week 2.

Stress dials: collections %, unit cost uplift %, repair capex variance %, days-to-advance.

11) Ethics, Reputation, and the Long Game

• Pay people first. Signal values and stabilize operations.

• Be fair with small vendors. Rotate partial payments; avoid starving the ecosystem you depend on.

• Tell the truth in short sentences. Markets remember who was reliable when it mattered.

12) Sector Playbooks (Liquidity Nuances)

Retail: card rails and mobile POS; shrink controls; refrigeration energy priority.
Manufacturing: spare-parts cash bucket; toll manufacturing; raw material safety stock.
Hospitality: deposits/credits tracking; simplified F&B; staff housing line.
Financial Services: remote KYC; branch pop-ups; ATM fueling and security budget.

13) What Usually Breaks—and How to Prevent It

• Optimistic collections. Apply down-shifts by bucket; measure weekly.

• Untracked deferrals. Keep a simple log; attach emails/agreements.

• Lever whiplash. Small, planned draws with dates beat panicked spikes.

• Invisible covenants. Calculate weekly; call the bank before the covenant calls you.

• “Cut everything” reflex. Starving Tier 1 slows revenue restoration; fund the engine.

14) One-Page Checklist (Copy/Paste)

• Opening Cash, Undrawn Lines, Min Cash set (Day 1)

• Inflows plan loaded (collections, advances, relief) (Day 2)

• Outflows tiered and owners assigned (Day 2)

• Spend Tiers enacted; Tier 2 freeze with Gold approval (Day 2)

• Liquidity levers lined up; term sheets or emails on file (Day 3)

• Lender & supplier signals sent with dates (Day 3)

• Weekly KPI pack scheduled; dashboard owner named (Day 3)

• Downside scenario live; triggers documented (Day 4)

• Covenant headroom computed and tracked (Day 4)

• Audit-trail folder updated weekly (claims linkage)

15) Appendices

A) Suggested Collections Targets by Aging Bucket (starting point)

• Current: 80–90% of face in 30 days

• 1–30d: 55–70%

• 31–60d: 35–50%

• 61–90d: 15–30%
  (Adjust to sector reality and storm severity.)

B) Runway Guidance

• If runway < 3 weeks on downside: trigger lever draw and Tier 1 pruning.

• If runway < 2 weeks: escalate lender waiver/bridge line; accelerate factoring.

• If runway ≥ 6 weeks: consider early Elevation CAPEX that cuts downtime cost.

C) Minimal Lender Data Pack (attachments)

• 13-week model (xlsx), weekly SITREPs, claims dossier index, repair SLAs, customer retention metrics.

 Next Step!

Let’s restore—and rise—together.
Dawgen Global’s RISE-360™ team builds and runs 13-week cash sprints, negotiates with lenders and suppliers, and links liquidity to claims and restoration outcomes.

Request a proposal: [email protected] • USA: 855-354-2447 • Web: https://dawgen.global

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