Rethinking Development: Why Jamaica Must Embrace a Green Growth Model

A Nation at a Crossroads

Jamaica stands at a pivotal moment in its development journey. With its Vision 2030 agenda striving for developed country status, the question confronting policymakers and private stakeholders alike is not whether to pursue growth—but what kind of growth is sustainable, equitable, and future-ready.

In the face of escalating climate risks and an energy-intensive economy, the traditional model of development—reliant on imported fossil fuels and resource-heavy sectors—appears increasingly untenable. Instead, green growth emerges not only as an environmental necessity but also as a powerful driver of inclusive prosperity and economic resilience.

Why Change is Imperative

Jamaica’s vulnerability to climate change is not theoretical—it’s lived reality. From rising sea levels that threaten coastal tourism to droughts and floods that undermine agriculture, key sectors of the economy face structural risks that cannot be ignored.

Moreover, the nation imports 100% of its fossil fuels, which makes it doubly exposed: financially through energy costs, and geopolitically through fluctuating oil prices. The energy sector alone places a substantial burden on government spending, trade deficits, and household income.

The traditional “business-as-usual” development path, based on fossil fuels and external supply chains, has reached its limits.

The Case for Green Growth

The recent report, “A Green Economic Growth Model for Jamaica”, produced by Cambridge Econometrics in collaboration with the ILO and UNDP, compares two development scenarios:

1. A baseline (business-as-usual) growth trajectory

2. An accelerated green growth scenario aligned with Jamaica’s climate commitments and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

The findings are compelling:

• GDP increases by nearly 1% above baseline levels by 2037 in the green scenario

• 7,500 net new jobs are created, particularly in services, tourism, retail, and business activities

• Green growth improves the trade balance by reducing imported fuel costs

• Female and youth employment rise significantly, supporting social inclusion goals

Key Pillars of Jamaica’s Green Growth Transition

1. Green Skills and Workforce Development
   Investment of JM$3 billion into training for green jobs is not just a cost—it’s a catalyst for productivity, innovation, and upward mobility. As green sectors expand, demand grows for technicians, renewable energy experts, sustainability officers, and green entrepreneurs.

2. Renewable Energy and Electrified Transport
   Transitioning to solar, wind, and electric vehicles could cut fuel costs by JM$14 billion by 2037. Jamaica’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) supports this by targeting long-term energy diversification.

3. Green Capital Investments
   A proposed JM$12 billion investment into green technologies—from EV infrastructure to climate-smart agriculture—drives sectoral shifts while creating local business opportunities.

4. Domestic Resilience and Reduced Import Dependency
   By generating electricity locally and reducing fuel imports, Jamaica improves energy security and buffers against global price shocks—a key advantage in an increasingly volatile world.

What This Means for Business Leaders and Policymakers

This is not simply a government issue. Private sector engagement is critical to accelerate the transition. From real estate and tourism to banking and agriculture, every industry will be affected by—and can benefit from—the green shift.

Policy-makers must:

• Create fiscal incentives and de-risk investment in green infrastructure

• Prioritize green skills in educational and vocational systems

• Ensure the transition is just, with social protection for vulnerable workers

Businesses should:

• Identify green growth opportunities in their value chains

• Invest in upskilling and digital transformation

• Collaborate with government and NGOs on sustainable initiatives

A Future Worth Investing In

Green growth is not a silver bullet—but it is a strategic imperative for Jamaica. As climate impacts intensify and the global economy rapidly shifts toward sustainability, clinging to outdated, fossil-fueled models of development poses increasing economic, environmental, and social risks.

By contrast, a green growth pathway offers multiple long-term dividends:

• Energy independence that shields the nation from volatile global fuel prices

• Job creation in modern, inclusive sectors, particularly for youth and women

• Greater resilience against climate shocks in agriculture, tourism, and infrastructure

• Improved public health and quality of life, thanks to cleaner air and sustainable transport

• Access to green finance from global institutions eager to support just transitions

This isn’t just about carbon footprints—it’s about economic competitiveness, innovation, and nation-building. Countries that lead in green skills, technologies, and policies will attract investment, talent, and trade opportunities in the decades ahead. Jamaica has both the need and the potential to be one of them.

However, unlocking this potential requires intentional, sustained collaboration across sectors—government, business, education, civil society, and international partners. It calls for a new development ethos: one where progress is measured not only by GDP, but by long-term resilience, inclusion, and ecological balance.

As Jamaica reimagines its future, the real choice isn’t between growth and sustainability—it’s between remaining vulnerable to 20th-century constraints or embracing 21st-century solutions that deliver prosperity with purpose.

The question is not whether we can afford green growth. The question is: Can we afford not to?

About This Series

This article marks the beginning of Dawgen Global’s Thought Leadership Series on sustainable economic development in Jamaica. Drawing on the report “A Green Economic Growth Model for Jamaica”, each installment will unpack key opportunities, challenges, and policy directions for building a green, inclusive, and prosperous future.

Coming next:

• Powering the Future – the economic case for electrified transport and renewable energy

• Greening the Labour Market – where and how green jobs will emerge

• Women and Youth in the Green Economy – ensuring equity in the transition

• Financing Green Growth – unlocking climate finance and reducing import leakage

• The Just Transition Blueprint – making climate action socially inclusive and economically smart

Stay connected as we explore the roadmap to Jamaica’s green transformation—and how stakeholders like you can help lead the way.

Next Step!